Spring Valley Elementary. Marina Middle School. Balboa High, class of 1996. Before I was a loan officer, I was a kid on these streets. Here's what's actually happening in the Excelsior's housing market right now, and why it's becoming one of the last genuinely affordable places to buy in San Francisco proper.
I grew up in the Excelsior. Long before NMLS #454267 existed, I was a kid taking the bus down Mission Street. I went to Spring Valley Elementary, then Marina Middle School, and graduated from Balboa High School in 1996 — Balboa sits right along the edge of the neighborhood, a short walk from Balboa Park BART.
I'm not writing about the Excelsior because a keyword tool told me to. I'm writing about it because I know what Mission Street actually sounds like on a Saturday morning, and I know why people who grew up here — like me — tend to want to stay, or come back.
That gap is real, and it's the whole story. San Francisco's median home price has climbed more than 16% year-over-year, driven substantially by the neighborhoods closest to the tech and AI corridor. The Excelsior hasn't moved anywhere near that fast — homes here typically sell for 27% less than the city as a whole, and the conforming loan limit ($1,249,125) comfortably covers most Excelsior purchases. Jumbo financing is the exception here, not the rule.
San Francisco's housing market right now is genuinely being reshaped by AI money. The city's median home price hit a record $2.15 million in 2026, and homes near the AI industry's core — Mission Bay, Potrero Hill — are seeing bidding wars that sound almost unreal: one home listed at $7.95 million sold for $15 million. That's real, and it's happening less than five miles from where I went to high school.
But the Excelsior isn't seeing that same direct effect, and it's worth being honest about why. This neighborhood sits south of I-280, away from the offices where that AI wealth is concentrated. What's actually happening here is a second-order effect: as SF's core gets priced further out of reach, more buyers who specifically want San Francisco — not just the general Bay Area — are looking at neighborhoods like the Excelsior as the realistic way to still get it.
The Excelsior isn't booming because of AI wealth. It's becoming more valuable specifically because it's one of the last places in the city where that wealth hasn't already priced out a standard buyer. That's a real, durable advantage — not a bubble following the same pattern as Mission Bay.
| Your situation | Likely program |
|---|---|
| W-2 income, buying at or near the median | Conventional or FHA — jumbo usually isn't needed here |
| Self-employed, tax returns understate real income | Bank statement or P&L programs |
| Buying a larger or renovated property above ~$1.25M | Jumbo financing — real, but genuinely the exception in this neighborhood |
Say you're buying a $950,000 single-family home in the Excelsior — right in the neighborhood's real median range — with 20% down.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Loan amount (80% LTV) | $760,000 |
| Principal & interest (6.93%, 30yr) | $5,021/month |
| Est. property tax | $950/month |
| Est. insurance | $175/month |
| Total PITI | $6,146/month |
Well under the conforming limit, well under jumbo territory — a genuinely standard conventional file. That's the real, practical case for the Excelsior right now: San Francisco ownership, without San Francisco's most extreme numbers.
No credit pull, no personal info required to start — see your real numbers, then talk directly to someone who actually knows these streets.
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